West Africa’s biggest equities market is cooling off after a strong year, and the weekly numbers show why selectivity now matters more than headline returns.
Nigeria's stock market closed lower for a fourth week running in the week ending 23 October, even as a handful of individual shares posted double-digit gains.
The NGX All-Share Index, the main benchmark of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), eased 0.13 per cent to 247,222.27 points from 247,539.73 the previous week. That small slip wiped \u20a6210.89 billion off the value of listed companies, leaving total market capitalisation at \u20a6160.519 trillion.
Even so, the market is still well ahead for the year, with a year-to-date return of 58.87 per cent.
Smaller losses, but weaker breadth
The week's decline was milder than the 0.52 per cent, 0.97 per cent and 0.33 per cent drops of the three preceding weeks. Business news outlet Norvan Reports notes that the moderation hints at selling pressure easing, though the underlying numbers tell a harsher story.
Fifty-five stocks fell during the week, up from 30 the week before, while only 20 rose \u2014 down from 50. Another 71 were flat. That works out to roughly three losers for every winner, meaning many individual portfolios took a bigger hit than the headline index suggests.
Friday brought some relief. The index rose 0.92 per cent, adding 2,265.33 points and \u20a61.47 trillion in value, pulling away from Thursday's weekly low of 244,956.94 points.
More shares changing hands
Trading activity picked up. Investors exchanged 2.024 billion shares worth \u20a6110.773 billion in 173,113 deals, against 1.659 billion shares worth \u20a698.088 billion in 184,632 deals the previous week \u2014 volume up about 22 per cent, value up 13 per cent, but fewer deals. That points to bigger average trades and likely institutional involvement.
Financial services dominated, with 1.111 billion shares worth \u20a653.908 billion, or 54.89 per cent of volume. Just three companies \u2014 Multi-Trex Integrated Foods, Zenith Bank and Livestock Feeds \u2014 accounted for a quarter of all shares traded.
Winners and losers
ABC Transport led the gainers, climbing 20.66 per cent to \u20a67.30 from \u20a66.05 after securing approval to raise \u20a66.5 billion in fresh capital. AVA Capital rose 17.74 per cent, Caverton Offshore Support Group 17.07 per cent and Fidelity Bank 14.01 per cent to \u20a624.00 \u2014 even though the banking index fell 0.67 per cent on the week and 7.25 per cent over the month.
On the losing side, UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust dropped 17.26 per cent to \u20a617.50, a second straight double-digit fall. Nigerian Exchange Group itself lost 10.29 per cent to \u20a6152.50. Aradel Holdings recorded the biggest cash decline, shedding \u20a694.90 to \u20a61,405.00.
By sector, oil and gas slipped 2.55 per cent but remains the year's strongest with a 126.04 per cent return. Insurance fell 2.79 per cent and is down 11.76 per cent for the year. Industrial goods gained 1.95 per cent.
What to watch
The question for the coming sessions is whether Friday's buying spreads beyond a few heavyweight names. A lasting recovery would need far more listed companies joining in \u2014 a reminder for Ghanaian and diaspora investors with regional exposure that a strong index return does not cancel out company-level risk.
