A Reuters poll of 30 analysts now puts Brent crude at an average of $89.05 a barrel this year, a sign that high fuel import costs may persist well into 2027.
Oil market analysts have pushed up their price forecasts for 2026, as expectations fade that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal soon.
A Reuters poll of 30 economists and analysts conducted in September now puts Brent crude, the global benchmark grade, at an average of $89.05 per barrel for the year. That is a jump from the $85.08 average forecast in the August survey. Forecasts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main United States benchmark, were also raised, to $83.90 a barrel from $80.20.
The spread of views was wide, with Brent estimates ranging from $77.27 to $97.60 a barrel, reflecting how uncertain analysts are about whether the recovery in Gulf oil flows can hold.
Why Hormuz matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which a large share of the world's seaborne crude passes. Before the war, roughly 19 to 20 million barrels per day of liquids moved through it.
The Ghana Report, citing the Reuters survey, said several analysts no longer expect traffic to be fully restored in the near term. HSBC is working on the assumption of only gradual improvement and describes the strait as "structurally impaired". DBS Bank said it is not assuming the conflict will be settled within the next three to six months.
Despite that, Gulf producers have clawed back much of their export volumes. Goldman Sachs estimates total Gulf exports reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly in line with the 2025 average, after volumes doubled during September. That figure includes so-called dark exports, cargoes carried by tankers that switch off their location transponders.
China and OPEC+ add to the uncertainty
China, the world's largest crude importer, is another wild card. Nomisma Energia expects its imports to strengthen as stockpiles rebuild and winter demand approaches. But FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have trimmed their fourth-quarter forecasts by about 400,000 barrels per day, to between 9.2 million and 9.3 million, after Brent climbed back above $100, freight costs rose and discounted Iranian and Venezuelan barrels largely disappeared from the market.
Chinese imports recovered to almost 9 million barrels per day in August, up from a decade low in June, but still below last year's average.
Relief from OPEC+, the alliance of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, looks unlikely in the short term. Reuters sources say eight members meeting on Sunday are expected to leave production targets unchanged.
Analysts at the EIU told Reuters that weak manufacturing and slower global growth should keep crude below the peaks seen right after the conflict began, though they expect inventories to fall sharply as countries draw down commercial and emergency reserves.
Most of those surveyed do not expect the market to swing back into surplus until 2027.
